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Home POLITICS Democrats could face an army of 'submerged voters' in midterms, pollster says

Democrats could face an army of ‘submerged voters’ in midterms, pollster says

Democrats are likely to experience more political opposition at the polls than expected, thanks to an army of voters that won’t be easy to track.

Recent attacks by President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party on conservatives are motivating a large coalition of hard-to-poll Americans to vote for the GOP in the midterm elections, according to Robert C. Cahaly, the top pollster for the Trafalgar Group.

“If the election were tomorrow, Republicans should be extremely optimistic,” Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “How should they feel in six weeks? There are many things that can happen in such a long time. But for now, they should feel extremely optimistic.”

Cahaly called this new group of voters “submerged voters” in a Twitter thread posted on Saturday. These voters will be even harder to poll than in previous elections when attacks from the left caused supporters of former President Donald Trump to avoid political polls but not the ballot box, Cahaly tweeted. (RELATED: White House: You’re ‘Extreme’ If You Disagree With ‘Most Americans’)

When former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called former President Donald Trump’s supporters in 2016 “‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” those supporters were hesitant to discuss politics publicly. They were called the “shy Trump voters,” she said.

Cahaly told the Daily Caller that pollsters were forced to change their method of questioning to better select these “shy” voters in 2018 after not seeing them in 2016 caused the public to lose confidence in political polls. However, when the attacks served as ways to cancel or mislead all those who contradicted the current progressive vision, these once “timid” voters became the millions of “hidden voters” who once again surprised pollsters in 2020. , He said. tweeted.

Biden’s recent speech, in which he demonized Trump supporters in front of a red-tinted White House flanked by two uniformed active duty US Marines, and the aggressive actions of the US Department of Justice. against The “MAGA Republicans” will push these “submerged” voters further underground, Cahaly said. “They’re not putting bumper stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions or even taking surveys,” he said. tweeted.

“At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ have created an army of voters that will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and even harder to estimate,” Cahaly . tweeted. “2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than polls or models show. All polls (including ours) will underestimate the impact of these ‘poor voters’”.

“I think that effect will be further amplified with Biden labeling certain voters as people who are threats to the country. With the label that she has provided, a lot of voters are very, very nervous,” he told the Daily Caller. (RELATED: Biden attacks ‘MAGA Republicans’ in angry speech, labels them ‘threat’ to democracy)

Biden’s comments during his White House speech were a political loss for Democrats. according to to a Trafalgar Group survey conducted September 2-5.

Nearly 57% of likely voters told Trafalgar that Biden’s speech represented “a dangerous escalation in rhetoric and [was] designed to incite conflict among Americans.” Comparatively, only 35.5% said it was “an acceptable campaign message to be expected in an election year,” the poll reported.

Public opinion on whether Biden has united or divided the country in his nearly two years in office is also negative, with more than 58% of Americans narration Trafalgar that Biden’s time in office divided the country, while only 20% believe he has been a unifier.

Cahaly told the Daily Caller that voter turnout will likely exceed typical midterm numbers, measuring “somewhere between 2018participation and 2020.” However, due to attacks on conservative voters, pollsters will have a harder time accurately estimating how large the voting bloc of these “submerged voters” is, similar to pollsters caught off guard with the more than 150 million votes cast. in 2020.

Voter turnout during the primaries was higher among Republicans than Democrats, and “that’s a good sign” for the GOP, according to the pollster. John Couvillon from JMC Analytics, reported The Washington Post on Monday. Republican voters cast 52% of the ballots in the 2022 primary compared to 48% of voters who voted in Democratic races.

Couvillon’s voter turnout analysis shows how elections trend toward each party based on the number of voters participating in the primary. The report indicates that the party with the highest voter turnout in the primary fare better on Election Day in November.

In each midterm from 2006 to 2018, totaling the 35 states where primary turnout was comparable across the five midterms, Couvillon found that the party with the highest primary vote margin was the House margin winner. in November each time, The Washington Post reports.

CNN Senior Data Reporter harry ducks said The 2022 midterms are likely to resemble the results of the 2010 or 2014 primaries, when Republicans had a higher turnout than Democrats and won the House margin.

“While the partisan makeup of this year’s primary voters is not as Republican as it was in 2010 or 2014, it still points to a midterm election in which the GOP has a slight lead nationally,” Enten wrote. “Since 2010, the partisan composition of midterm primary voters has been 3 points more Republican than their eventual margin in the national House vote.”

The Republicans’ 5-point lead heading into the midterms could see them win the house by 2 points, according to the Ducks.

Pollsters will not be able to accurately predict the number of submerged Republican voters” who will vote in the midterms, according to Cahaly. “I do not know how many there is. I just know how people are reacting to what’s been going on and what we’re seeing,” Cahaly said. “I don’t think we can measure that number. I think we’re all going to fall short.” (RELATED: ‘A Very Good Day For Donald Trump’: Alyssa Farah Griffin Says DOJ May Have ‘Handed Over’ Trump 2024 After Raid)

He warned that voters who have participated in previous polls or likely would have been refusing to participate in his new polls after Biden delivered his infamous speech. “People are so afraid to speak their mind,” Cahaly told the Daily Caller. “They recognize our name and contact us directly on our website to see if we are the ones sending [the survey].”

Trafalgar Group has recently received several “strange” responses from people checking to make sure it was the survey company that sent the survey. “Since that speech, we’ve gotten weird stuff like people emailing us and calling us, ‘Hey, I got a survey saying you all went, but I wasn’t sure, so I didn’t. What about you guys?’ “, said.

This “strange phenomenon” has never happened to them in any other election, even during the height of the tension in 2016 and 2020, Cahaly admitted.

According to Cahaly, the large number of voters who cannot be accurately tracked will help Republican voter turnout in the midterm elections, including giving the GOP control of the US Senate and House of Representatives.

If the election were held today, Cahaly said “submerged voters” would help tip the balance in several key races, including the possibility that the difference between Ohio’s Republican Senate candidate, JD Vance, and Ohio’s Democratic Sen. , Tim Ryan, “don’t even come close” in favor of Vance.

He also hopes “underground voters” will help elect Republican candidates like Doug Mastriano, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Brian Kemp and Herschel Walker in November. “I think it’s very possible that they will be wins,” he told the Daily Caller.

“Even in the races that we have as extremely close, 1 or 2 points behind the Republicans, I think it’s very possible that the undecided will break through and their voters that we can’t measure will get those wins,” Cahaly said.


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